Dear Readers,
First, let’s take a look at the current pandemic numbers, in the world and in Germany in particular:
Data source: Johns Hopkins University.
Many factors do drive a pandemic. First of all it is the pathogen’s infectiveness, its propensity to find new hosts to multiply in. SARS-CoV-2 is a respiratory pathogen, it is spread literally by the air we breathe. In the human civilization, the virus does spread with every contact its current host – you – is engaging in.
Consequently, governments around the world devised several kinds of responses to the culprit, depending on cultural, societal, and governmental foundations. China imposed heavy restrictions, enforced by military and tight-knit surveillance. South Korea and Taiwan used technology and the will of their people to cooperate. New Zealand made use of its island nature to avoid import of the virus. Sweden asked its people to be careful. Brazil denied the virus’ existence. The US acknowledged the virus’ existence but could not decide on a plan. Czechia first imposed severe measures just to lift them too early. Italy and France reacted slowly, then imposed severe restrictions on peoples’ liberties. Germany looked on, saw an epidemic coming, reacted rather slowly, and made a half-hearted attempt on the virus’ spread. This resulted in bizarre regulations. Our favorite example is the following one. In several German states, you were not allowed to sit on your own on an outdoor bench.
The ONE single driver of the pandemic was looked for in many places (this is called single cause fallacy): Schools, bars, barber shops, gyms, public transportation, parties, restaurants and hotels, theater and opera, cinemas, private homes, shopping malls, choirs, you name it!
In fact, every single one of the above are involved in the pandemic’s working, since all of these are situations where people come into contact with each other.
Consequently, the intelligent human mind devised some sensible rules to avoid infection. Absent a vaccine, the two most effective measures are distance and face masks. Both are easy enough to comprehend. Since they are easy to comprehend, they are easy enough to ignore.
That is the main driver of the pandemic. Individual (at times stupid) behavior.
Without a change in general behavior, we shall receive the bill in January.
Several vaccines are on the horizon. Over the course of the coming year, parts of the population might be vaccinated. The pandemic might (!) be under control by 2022. Until then, please stay alert and practice the Merkulix-Ahatzl (which are the rules of avoiding an infectious event).
Yours, Jörg Baumann and Sabine Breun
SAJO is consulting all around infectious diseases. We are applying our know-how, that we have acquired in more than 20 years. We do what we can to fight this pandemic.
SAJO – for a healthy world and better future!
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