… therefore our appeal !
March 21, 2020 (2:13 pm): 20,705 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany (Johns Hopkins University).
There are 85 million people living in Germany. SARS-CoV-2 is a new pathogen, there is no immunity of the population. Every infected person on average does infect three more.
Without previous immunity every person in contact is in danger of contracting the virus. Herd immunity is achieved at 70 – 80 % infections: Once 70 – 80 % of the population are infected, the virus is no longer able to spread efficiently. 70 % would mean 60 million infected people. We are not too far away from this number: Should the infection spread at the current pace, there will be 10 million confirmed infections within four weeks, already.
Statistically, 5 % of infected people exhibit a severe disease. With 60 million patients, this would mean about 3 million severe cases in Germany alone. Another 15 % are expected to have a disease course that requires hospitalization: Another 9 million people. Distributed over 52 weeks in a year, this would be 57,000 ICU patients per week, and another 173,000 hospitalizations. Note: This reflects a linear course of the epidemic! In Germany, currently there are about 28,000 ICU of which a significant number are already occupied, since there are other indications as well.
The curve of infections will be exponential. Thus, within 1 – 2 weeks hospitals will be heavily burdened, sometimes exceeding their capacities. Only towards the end of the epidemic, hospitals will see some relief. Even if the epidemic is lasting for two years, the burden on the public health system will still be dramatic.
These simplified calculations are alarming and, should there be no interventions, will overwhelm the capacities of any health system.
Cynics might calculate that hospital beds will become available, since some people will recover and others will die. Unfortunately, in a logarithmic epidemic this number is minuscule compared to the new infections.
With the currently available case fatality rate of 0.5 %, this would mean 300,000 casualties in Germany alone with a worldwide expectation of 40 million deaths. These numbers are well within the range of the 1918 Spanish Flu. Mortality might well exceed 0.5 % depending on the hospitals’ capacities.
Some measures that should be taken NOW:
- Hospitals should take their time to prepare their units, doctors, medical and service personnel. Estimates would expect an explosive amount of infections within a week or two. With 100,000 infected persons, 5,000 will require ICU treatment. These numbers are just for orientation.
- Medical personnel need the time to get prepared in advance. Non-critical surgeries need to be postponed until further notice. This will free ICU capacities and medical personnel will have some time to recover before facing an exceedingly stressful time. Short term profit now is not acceptable.
- Now we have the chance to adjust our behavior. Our world will be different after this crisis. There will be personal and financial losses and you should contemplate now how to deal with the changed environment. It is important that the government is providing help to avert existential losses. However, it would be wrong to hand over responsibility to the government alone. We all want to keep our freedom, as part of a democracy, but this requires individual responsibility as well.
- We need to act in concert, with the government, with the medical doctors, scientists, epidemiologists, and those experts, that will be needed after the crisis. Listen to the experts, and not to those who are outside the subject’s area.
- The course of the epidemic is in your hands. Please see our respective blog post. Please stay at home and please don’t gather at home for parties since this is a place where the virus is transmitted. Even if you do not comprehend it, try and trust our government. Should you belong to those people who are still behaving stupidly, you will have to expect more severe restrictions of your basic democratic rights. All other residents will have to suffer thanks to you.
- One word to the duration of the current measures until the end of the Easter holidays and a follow-up evaluation: It does not help to wait and see. We need to act now, and wiser than before. It is significant how fast and how steep the curve of infections will be. Should there be a small dip in infections, which we do not expect, infection numbers will rise again as soon as the virus has the chance to spread again. Lifting measures too early will result in a yo-yo-effect. We can’t escape the situation and we can’t ignore it.
- We need to learn to live with the situation, until there is either a vaccine, or medication, or herd immunity. Probably this will be the case next year.
- Please stay informed and think about how you’ll reorganize your life and your finances. You have to choose your source of information: there are public stations, reliable internet sites, reputable newspapers, and, unfortunately, too much junk. It is your decision.
The current pandemic is providing a warning for the future. It is time to invest into business areas that have an impact for the future, business areas that may help not just to survive future crises but to master them.
Stay informed and alert,
Sabine and Joerg